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Only 48 hours prior to the New York race for mayor, Michael Lange issued a bold electoral prediction – going beyond who would win overall, and block by block. Lange, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and emerged as a kind of well-known figure this year for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He released his extremely precise forecast map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate was victorious although missing Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, his platform. Lange possesses a talent for witty coinages. He highlighted, as an example, the divide between the progressive stronghold, running from one neighborhood to Bushwick to a third locale, where he forecasted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would win by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and financial newspapers outrank the New York Times” in readership and most voters favored the independent, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Trends and Unexpected Results

How was your election night?

I had to do that since they were dropping around 200,000 ballots into the tally every few minutes! I was actually a little nervous at the beginning: The candidate led the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but there were large groups of ballots added after that and the advantage dropped from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world where yesterday went kind of poorly for Mamdani, in which Cuomo was going to end up basically doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But the winner gained 500,000 votes to his initial base, and this was critical why he won. He campaigned and massively expanded his support from the primary.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect get those extra votes from?

He built the coalition that progressives long aimed for: it’s multiracial, youthful, it’s renters and individuals facing cost pressures. He improved significantly with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the earlier election. Plus he boosted his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He built the alliance that progressives long aimed for: multiracial, youthful, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were a number of supporters of both candidates – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a real thing, limited to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Electors in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump previously backed the progressive this year. However I wouldn’t say he was winning over white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Effects

One of the big stories of the election was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was much greater than I had expected. I thought we might exceed 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – that is a huge number of participants. There was a decent opposition group, energized, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that was enough to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Right now you would say he’s likely to get over half. He has just over 50% but there’s still probably 200K ballots uncounted as of Wednesday morning. So I don’t think it’s definitive, but I think it’s likely, and I wish he achieves it because then no one can say Sliwa was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His vote plummeted.

He lost any district in any area. Including Tottenville in the borough, which is like an highly conservative area. That truly surprised me. The independent kept very white areas, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added many conservatives on Staten Island with a high participation. I think occurred significant tactical voting by GOP voters. They were doing it prior to the former president endorsed for Cuomo, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome if Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your much mentioned “commie corridor” – did backing for Mamdani dominant in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think existed a little dilution of the progressive zone in certain places like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. There, instance, the Greek landlords and residents all went for the independent. So there was a little resistance. However no, largely the leftist base is another huge reason why Zohran won – he scored between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on if the candidate was making inroads with the community. Any indication that he did?

There are areas with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – like specific locales – where he did well. However in the affluent districts such as the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance definitely mattered there. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they favored Cuomo. And also, there are newcomers from Eastern Europe in the borough, who were strongly supportive. Therefore it’s unclear if there were crazy narrative-busters here, but he retained left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what New York represents in politics? Will the commie corridor serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that key political leaders from the left come from a few areas in the boroughs. I’m sure that we’ll see more of that – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

But I think that every city in the US could develop similar progressive hubs. Cities are the centers of leftwing power in the nation – since they’re young, people rent and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the inequalities exist.