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Well. On one hand, Australia's long-running bid to organize the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to host the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought tens of thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

That's not happening. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

The result will be a major let down to many people who had believed organizing the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials truly desired the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and at times completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the conference leader, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively address the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. The details of the deal had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could collapse before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is generally viewed in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is privately arranged to encourage them to step aside.

The Turkish bid plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not just by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the petroleum exporters that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

The Turkish president is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a summit obstructed from the top if his government led the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an underprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the battle with global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations assert it is pivotal to their success.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a president holding the pen who can listen, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the conference except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, civil society is essential at environmental summits. How, if anything, can the federal administration do to stop a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the best chance possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the global community. This attempt is justified.